Market & harvest

Brazil coffee harvest 2026: what it means for European roasters

Conab estimates Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop at a record 67.6 million bags. Arabica is sharply up, conilon is down: here is what it means for green coffee buyers.

Green Coffee · 23 October 2026 · 2 min read

60 kg bags estimated (total): 67.6M
bags of arabica, +34.8%: 48.2M
bags of conilon, −6.6%: 19.4M
versus the 2025 crop: +19.6%

Key points

Conab’s third survey (24 September 2026) estimates 67.6 million bags, the highest in its historical series.
Growth comes mainly from arabica in an on-year of the biennial cycle.
Conilon (Brazilian robusta) is down, mostly due to irregular flowering in Espírito Santo.
A large crop does not replace checking each individual lot.

The official 2026 numbers

On 24 September 2026 Conab, Brazil’s national agricultural supply agency, published its third coffee survey of the season. With 99% of the area harvested, national production is estimated at 67.6 million 60 kg bags of processed coffee: 19.6% more than in 2025 and the highest figure in Conab’s historical series.

Two drivers explain the increase: a larger producing area, estimated at 1.95 million hectares (+5.1%), and average yields rising from 30.4 to 34.6 bags per hectare (+13.8%). Conab points to plant physiology, growing use of technology in farm management and generally more favourable weather.

With 99% of the area harvested, 2026 production is estimated at 67.6 million bags — Conab, 3rd survey

Arabica: a positive biennial year

Arabica, about 70% of Brazil’s output, is estimated at 48.2 million bags, up 34.8% year on year. Arabica trees tend to alternate heavier and lighter crops; 2026 is an ‘on-year’ with a high bearing load.

Minas Gerais remains the core with an estimated 34.96 million bags of arabica, of which the South and Centre-West of Minas account for 15.93 million. Conab links the result to better-distributed rain before flowering and favourable weather until March, which supported good bean filling. São Paulo also grows, with 6.19 million bags of arabica estimated.

Conilon down, Espírito Santo under pressure

Conilon, the Coffea canephora grown in Brazil, is estimated at 19.4 million bags, 6.6% below 2025, despite a 4% larger producing area.

The decline is driven mainly by Espírito Santo, the leading conilon state: low temperatures caused irregular flowering and the state’s conilon crop is estimated at 12.1 million bags (−14.3%). Arabica in the same state rises 33%. Rondônia, which grows only conilon, is up 24% at 2.88 million bags, and Bahia grows 1.2% overall.

Espírito Santo: conilon 12.1M bags (−14.3%), arabica 4.38M (+33%).
Rondônia: 2.88M bags of conilon (+24%).
Bahia: 1.19M bags of arabica and 3.3M of conilon (+1.2% total).

What it means for green coffee buyers

A record arabica crop generally means more Brazilian lots to choose from. On its own, however, it says nothing about future prices or the quality of any single lot: prices also depend on global demand, currency, logistics and stocks. Conab reports that Brazil exported 3.8 million bags in August 2026, the highest August in its series.

If you use Brazilian robusta in espresso blends, the conilon decline deserves attention: ask early about availability and alternatives rather than assuming continuity of supply.

What to do in the coming months

The 2026 harvest is practically complete, and lots are moving from processing and grading to export offers. It is a good moment to request samples and compare new-crop lots with the coffees you use today.

Request 2026 crop samples linked to a specific lot code.
Compare new arabicas with your current blend before switching supplier.
If you use conilon, check quantities and timing early.
Always ask for quotation validity and whether the lot is in stock or afloat.